Because my
article in yesterday’s Age (Dec 30/13), titled ‘Beware the official advice on bushfire safety’ has received some
adverse comments, alleging lack of evidence, I need to point out that it was
affected by some editorial cuts.
Though it
began with: ‘Are bushfire authorities in Victoria
1. Towards the middle of the article, I had validated my inference to the folly of encouraging mass evacuation on inevitably
extremely hot days, which led to people and animals ‘travelling in
confined quarters for long distances, subject to heat stress’ with the
statistic that although
‘on Black Saturday, 173 people died in the
bushfires, 300 died of heat stress’.
2. Near the end of the article, following the
statistics:
‘Research has revealed that for 70 per cent of Black Saturday fatalities,
no evidence was found of any kind of home defence and only 3-5 per cent had
been actively defending homes’
the scientifically researched facts were qualified as mere
suggestions, by the editorial insertion of the word ‘some’ and ‘suggests’:
‘It also found some people did not die because they
stayed with their homes - but because they did not know how to do so safely.
There is research and expert opinion that suggests people following safe
procedure can survive in their homes.’
The understanding is quite different as I wrote it:
It also found
that people did not die because
they stayed with their homes - but because they did not know how to do so
safely. That very few such fatalities had a
comprehensive fire plan, that 69% were sheltering inappropriately, and that most
did not wear suitable clothing.’
3. The further statistics:
‘ There has been
nothing in any research to show that anyone following safe procedure died in
their homes. A Bushfire CRC investigation into Black Saturday bushfire deaths
found that less than 1% were well prepared for evacuation.’
were cut before the piece was run on to:
A late 2009 report from
the Office of the Emergency Commissioner expressed concern that 83 per cent of
residents in fire zones would wait for official ''relocation'' advice. This
advice, it says, is never issued until ''conditions are extreme''.
The following is detailed Black Saturday research data revealing the actual causes of
deaths in and around houses that day. These statistics have been verified as a
correct precis of the report by research team member Damien Killalea.
Black Saturday, February
7, 2009 data
(from
the Review
of fatalities in the February 7, 2009, bushfires,
Final Report. Prepared
for the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission April 2010 (Bushfire CRC Centre
for Risk and Community, 13 April 2010.), by John Handmer, Saffron O’Neil and
Damien Killalea.)
• Very few of those who died had a comprehensive fire
plan.
Ø
34% had intended to
stay and defend their properties.
Ø
26% had intended to
wait and see before committing to stay or go.
Ø
8% had intended to
stay at their property but to seek shelter.
Ø
5% provided no
evidence of any intention.
• Of the fatalities who had
decided to stay and defend:
Ø
20% were found to be
well prepared.
- Research criteria for this
was ‘appropriate activity before 1.30 pm’ that
day.
Ø
14% had made some
preparations.
• Of the fatalities who had
decided to evacuate:
Ø
Under 1% were well
prepared; lacking even a ‘cue’ to go and a known destination.
Ø
5% had a vague idea
of a destination and cue to go.
• 30% of fatalities showed
some evidence of fire-fighting defence. Of these:
Ø
5% were carrying out
active defence at the time of their deaths.
Ø
25% were classified
as carrying out some or questionable defence.
• For 70% of people who died
no evidence was found of any kind of defence.
• 69% of Black Saturday
fatalities occurred while people were sheltering:
Ø
34% of all
fatalities, in the house generally.
– Almost all of these, 27%, were in the
bathroom.
Ø
8% outside in a
shed, spa, bunker or outhouse.
• 22% of Black Saturday
fatalities occurred outside the house.
Ø
15.6% outside a
house.
Ø
3% on roadways.
Ø
3% near cars.
Ø
0.4% in open land
reserves.
• 14% of people who died were
fleeing in cars or on foot without suitable clothing.
Ø
Total deaths
amounted to 1.24% of the 14 000 residents of the bushfire areas.
Two
further reports found that approximately 80% of
those who stayed to defend their homes did so successfully.
Issues in Community Bushfire Safety: Analyses of Interviews Conducted by
the
2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Task Force (Report Number 4: 2011), Jim McLennan, Glenn Elliott and Mary
Omodei
International Journal of Wildfire,
Whittaker, Haynes, Handmer and McLennan, pp 841-849.
